Biden administration overestimates second-quarter job growth by 1 million: Philadelphia Fed

The Biden administration overestimates the number of jobs created in the US in the second quarter by more than 1 million, according to a report issued by the Philadelphia Fed.

The report from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve found that only 10,500 new jobs were created between March and June.

That finding is in stark contrast to numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which said 1.12 million new jobs were added between March and June 2022.

Economists at the Philadelphia Regional Bank released their own report last week that compiles unemployment insurance data.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its estimates “include more comprehensive and accurate estimates of jobs published by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS reports, which are “issued monthly on a timely basis.”

The regional central bank said its “revised estimates” were issued “five months later with a more complete picture” than that offered by the BLS’ “current employment survey” (CES).

One expert told The Post that the stark contrast in the numbers could be explained by “the use of different methods to collect and analyze the data.”

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects its data through employer and household surveys, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve relies on unemployment insurance data,” Mina Tadrus, CEO of Tadrus Capital, told The Post.

“There may also be variations in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations when determining what counts as new work.”

Tadrus told The Post that “the significant difference in their findings underscores the need for caution in interpreting and using economic data to inform decision-making.”

The economists said so the series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve was based mostly on BLS job growth data, which has complicated the central bank’s efforts to rein in red-hot inflation.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration has “lied to the American people about our economy to support his failed agenda.”

“Million job mistake,” Scott tweeted last Friday.

The senator demands a meeting with the head of the BLS.

The CES surveys about 131,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 670,000 jobs in the United States, according to the BLS website.

But the QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” because it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” conducted five months after the quarter in question, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

“Our early benchmark process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process because we do not have access to all the data that the BLS uses,” the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said when describing its methodology.

“Therefore, we adopt the BLS benchmark CES estimates as the baseline employment level for each state.”

“Once QCEW data is released for periods outside of the latest CES benchmarks, we produce our early benchmarks,” the Philadelphia Fed added.