Republicans would win the House of Representatives, CNN projects

CNN
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Republicans will win ParliamentCNN Enterprises, in a victory that fell short of their “Red Wave” hopes but would disappoint President Joe Biden His domestic agenda and the White House is likely to submit to him Relentless investigations.

The fact that the Republican Party has crossed the 218-seat threshold needed to control the chamber Eight days after Election Day — and that he reached the final circuits to report results — underscores the party’s underwhelming performance in the midterm elections, which history and political logic have suggested should have delivered a stronger rebuke to Biden and the Democrats.

Defying political gravity, Democrats retained the Senate after an election dominated by concerns about high inflation and influenced, in some places, by the Supreme Court’s overturning of a constitutional right to abortion this summer. There is still something wonderful Senate race in Georgiawhich will be decided in a runoff in December and will determine the size of the Democratic majority.

The Republican victory in the House of Representatives will end Democrat Nancy Pelosi’s second term as Speaker of the House in January. But it looks like his majority will amount to a few seats, well short of initial projections by a margin that will make running a turbulent Republican convention a daunting task for party leaders.

And while it’s less impressive than party leaders had hoped, it still marks the return of Trump-style ideology and anarchic politics to Washington, given the powerful influence the former president is likely to wield over his aides at the Republican convention. previous president He announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election Tuesday night.

A new Republican-led House would certainly make life miserable for the White House for the rest of Biden’s term, the president admitted before the election when he told reporters that losing the Democratic majority would make things “more difficult.”

Biden congratulated House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday night, saying in a statement that he is “ready to work with House Republicans to deliver results for working families.”

But the Republicans will be able to enact their plans to target the White House, the administration and the president’s son, Hunter, with a list of relentless investigations. Given the reality of divided power in Washington and Biden’s veto, the GOP will struggle to impose its own agenda on the law. But it could serve as a political weapon for Trump by trying to damage Biden before a potential rematch in 2024.

In an exclusive interview with CNN before the election, McCarthy pledged to prioritize fighting inflation, rising crime and border security.

“The first thing you’ll see is a border control bill first,” said the California Republican when asked for details about his party’s immigration plans. “You have to control the borders. You’ve had almost 2 million people just this year alone.”

A smaller than expected Republican majority could create volatility in the convention by giving more leverage to radical Trump supporters. The difficult task of running the convention will require McCarthy to please the more moderate members whose seats will be even more vulnerable in 2024 and who could break their ruling majorities in individual legislation if they drop out to vote with the Democrats.

At a news conference the day after the election, Biden offered to work with the new Republican majority. But he ruled out compromises on his priorities, including any effort to cut back on Social Security and Medicare and abandon his ambitious climate change goals.

In practice, this probably means that the scope for cooperation is limited. And given the potential influence of radical members in a narrow majority of the Republican Party, there may be little appetite for cooperation with the Democratic White House anyway.

A divided government is likely to set off a series of confrontations between the Republican House of Representatives and the Democratic White House over tax policy, spending and even the size of US aid to Ukraine.

The most dangerous potential clash could come over the need to raise the US government’s borrowing cap at some point. Republicans have vowed to demand deep spending cuts in return for voting on legislation on the issue, a stance that will spark criticism that they are holding the global economy hostage for political reasons. Failure to raise the debt limit will lead to the US defaulting on its obligations, throwing the economy into a deep crisis and causing global contagion. Such disagreements would test McCarthy’s influence over his coalition. Two of his predecessors, Speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner, were driven to distraction by trying to deal with their more extreme members. McCarthy’s task is likely to be more complicated given Trump’s influence over House Republicans and his desire to wound Biden politically.

The House Republican convention voted on the California Republican to be its leader on Tuesday, putting him in line to be the next speaker. The challenger defeated Rep. Andy Biggs, former chairman of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus. The Arizona congressman carried 31 votes to the California Republican’s 188, according to multiple sources in the room. It was a secret ballot and McCarthy only needed to win a simple majority of the convention. In January, McCarthy must receive 218 votes, or a majority of the House of Representatives, to become president.

But while the votes against him highlighted the turmoil in the party after last week’s underwhelming GOP performance, McCarthy enjoys significant support in the broader Republican convention, due to his massive fundraising, energetic campaign, and years of preparatory work designed to achieve his ambition to be. Loudspeaker.

For example, Representative-elect Michael Lawler, who defeated the head of the House Democrats’ campaign arm in the New York district, told CNN’s Erin Burnett last week that he would support McCarthy, citing his help during the campaign.

“He was very supportive. He came to campaign with me and for me and I’m a big believer in sticking to whoever brought you to the dance,” Lawler said.

This story has been updated with additional reaction.