The Wildest Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2023

A worsening macroeconomic climate and the collapse of industry giants such as FTX and Terra weighed on the price of Bitcoin this year.

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2022 was a rough year for crypto. More than $1.3 trillion was wiped off the market value. And Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital coin, saw its price drop by more than 60%.

Investors were caught off guard by a wave of industry crashes from stablecoin project terraUSD to crypto exchange FTX, as well as a worsening macroeconomic climate. Those who made predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the past year really missed the mark.

But with 2023 almost upon us, some market players have stuck their necks out with price calls for what could be another volatile year.

Interest rates around the world are rising and this is weighing on risk assets like stocks and bitcoin. Investors are also watching to see how the FTX saga, which led to the arrest of company founder Sam Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas, will play out.

CNBC rounds up some of the boldest Bitcoin price calls in 2023.

Tim Draper: $250,000

Halving or halving is an an event that occurs every four years in which bitcoin rewards for miners are halved. This is seen by some investors as a positive for the price of Bitcoin as it reduces supply. The next halving is scheduled to happen sometime in 2024.

Bitcoin miners, who use energy-intensive machines to verify transactions and mine new tokens, have been squeezed by falling prices and rising energy costs.

These participants accumulate huge piles of digital currency, making them some of the biggest sellers in the market. As miners unload their holdings to pay off debts, this should remove most of the remaining selling pressure on Bitcoin.

This has historically been a good sign for bitcoin, said Vijay Ayar, vice president of corporate development at crypto exchange Luno.

“In past market downturns, miner capitulation has typically seen big bottoms,” Aiyar told CNBC. “Their cost of production becomes greater than the value of bitcoin, so you have a number of miners who either shut down their machines … or have to sell more bitcoin to keep their business afloat.”

“If the market reaches a point where it sufficiently absorbs this miner selling pressure, it can be assumed that we are seeing a bottom period.”

Standard Chartered: $5,000

For some market participants, the worst is yet to come.

In a Dec. 5 research note, Standard Chartered said bitcoin it could go as low as $5,000. The forecast, one of the bank’s list of “surprises” that have been “underestimated” by markets, would represent a 70% drop from current prices.

“Yields fall along with tech stocks” in Standard Chartered’s 2023 nightmare scenario, “and while the bitcoin selloff slows, the damage is done,” said Eric Robertsen, the bank’s global head of research.

“More and more crypto firms and exchanges are finding themselves with insufficient liquidity, leading to new bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets,” he added.

Robertsen said the scenario has a “non-zero probability of happening in the next year” and falls “significantly outside the market consensus or our own starting views”.

Mark Mobius: $10,000

Veteran investor Mark Mobius had a relatively successful 2022 in terms of his price. In May, he predicted that Bitcoin would fall to $20,000 when it was trading above $28,000.

He said Bitcoin would fall to $10,000 in 2022. That didn’t happen. However, Mobius said CNBC that it sticks to its $10,000 price in 2023.

The investor, who made his name at Franklin Templeton Investments, told CNBC that his bearishness on bitcoin stems from rising interest rates and overall tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve.

“With higher interest rates, the attractiveness of holding or buying bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies becomes less attractive, as holding the coin itself does not earn interest,” Mobius said via email.

Carol Alexander: $50,000

Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, was not far off the mark with his prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $10,000 in 2022.

Now, she thinks the cryptocurrency could be set for gains — but not for the reasons you might expect.

The catalyst will be more of a domino than FTX falling, Alexander said. If that happens, she expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $30,000 in the first quarter, and then $50,000 by the third or fourth quarter.

“In 2023, there’s going to be a managed bull market, not a bubble — so we’re not going to see overpricing like we did before,” she told CNBC.

“We’ll see a month or two of stable trend prices, interspersed with range-bound periods and possibly a few short-lived breakouts.”

Alexander’s reasoning is that as trading volumes evaporate with traders on the edge, large holders known as “whales” are likely to step in to support the market. The richest 97 bitcoin wallet addresses account for 14.15% of the total supply, according to fintech firm River Financial.

The Wildest Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2023

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